There's A Storm Coming.
Read our latest Demographic Drought research.
The smell of sharpened pencils fills the air as students head back to school this fall, but beneath the excitement and anticipation is a worrisome trend: demand for US teachers is rising as more and more educators leave the classroom. Among teachers who started 2018 or later, roughly 60% are no longer in their positions, and 47.2% of these profiles are no longer teaching in K-12.
And despite the challenges of pandemic-era teaching, this high rate of departure isn’t a one-time blip. Among US teachers who started work in 2013 or later, over 70% have left their roles (and over 55% are no longer K-12 teachers). And these teachers who leave education end up in diverse fields: in Lightcast social profiles data, we see that common pathways include:
Math teachers becoming researchers and research associates
Science and math teachers becoming software developers
Special education teachers becoming administrative assistants
Physical education teachers becoming sales representatives
Teaching is a demanding and often underappreciated profession, with teachers facing a myriad of challenges, from large class sizes and limited resources to low pay and high stress levels. These hardships take a toll, and many educators find themselves drawn to other career paths that offer better compensation, fewer administrative burdens, and more opportunities for growth and development.
Looking ahead to the future doesn’t offer any consolation, because the talent pipeline for teachers is drying up. Education majors are decreasing among college students—a decline that has been steady over the past 20 years but has accelerated over the past five—indicating that teaching has acquired a reputation for being demanding, difficult work. It’s also a small reflection of the rising storm of demographic challenges playing out all across the labor market, particularly as Baby Boomers retire—the US labor market is losing workers in vital fields and doesn’t have younger workers in line to take their place.
Under the broad umbrella of K-12 education, the demand for teachers varies significantly by specialty. In the US, Elementary and special education teachers have seen the greatest increase in demand, as these roles are especially challenging to fill. The skills required for these positions, such as expertise in individualized education programs (IEPs) and special education, are in high demand, but not easily acquired by those without specialized training.
Basic skills that recognize special needs for students are highly demanded for all teachers: ‘Special Education’ (first overall with a share of 22.93%), ‘Individual Education Programs (IEP)’ (ranked third, with a share of 15.08%).
While demand is high across the country for teachers (and special education teachers in particular), some areas are seeing especially high demand. In Arkansas, this may be due to a program in which school districts can apply for waivers to the state teaching license requirement, used in approximately 25% of districts statewide. (Researchers found that districts using this waiver dealt with many structural challenges to begin with, but the new teachers did not harm the districts’ test performance.)
Idaho—the state that has seen the highest share of growth in special education postings year-over-year—is approaching high teacher demand from a similar angle, using apprenticeships as a means by which teachers can earn their state teaching certification. That fits into a growing trend, as 40% of all occupations with registered apprenticeships are new since 2010, even expanding into jobs where paid training had been rare. Idaho is one of 37 states to have registered a teaching program with the Department of Labor.
As demand increases for teachers nationwide, particularly in elementary and special education, programs like these can help replenish the declining supply of incoming teachers. At the same time, such high turnover among K-12 is just as much a challenge as the talent pipeline, if not more so. Investing in teachers and their long-term success in the classroom makes it possible to meet the rising demand and ensure learners have the best education possible.
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